As a first step to undertaking vulnerability assessment for infrastructure, it is necessary to understand the climate change threats. District climate change threat profiles build on an understanding of past regular and extreme climate, and climate change projections to develop a summary of the type and magnitude of climate change threats that are likely to be experienced in each district of Nepal.

The threat profiles rely on future projections for each district for the period 2040-2060 compared to a baseline of 1980-2000. Statistical downscaling for temperature and precipitation stations was used to develop these projections using IPCC scenario A1B and four GCMs including PRECIS – Providing Regional Climate scenarios for Impact Studies; RegCM4 - Regional Climate Model version 4; ARPEGE; and WRF- Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.2. The downscaled datasets were prepared under ADB TA 7173 Strengthening Capacity for Managing Climate Change and the Environment. The datasets were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal and Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Thailand.

The results of the downscaling were incorporated into a basin-wide hydrological model which computed changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, PET, soil moisture, river discharge and runoff for every 120 x 120m grid cell in the district. Additional parameters computed include river water levels, flooding, erosion, sediment concentration, slope stability/land slide risk and irrigation demand. The full range of climate change threats has been summarized into key threats likely to impact on infrastructure development sectors in each district.

Threat profiles for eight districts were developed as part of PPCR 3, and DHM staff are receiving training on the threat profile development process so that they can develop similar threat profiles for the remaining 67 districts of Nepal. The eight districts for which threat profiles have been developed and are provided below include Achham, Banke, Chitwan, Dolkha, Kathmandu, Mustang, Myagdi, and Panchthar.

Two versions of the district climate change threat profiles have been developed for each district:

i) the district climate threat profiles provide a detailed description of the climate threats for the district; and

ii) the district climate threat profile summaries identify the key climate change threats for the district along with a short set of supporting materials.

District Climate Change Threat Profile Reports

District Climate change threat profiles

1. Achham Climate Change Threat Profiles for Development Sectors
2. Banke Clinate Change Threat Profiles for Development Sectors
3. Chitwan Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors
4. Dolkha Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors
5. Kathmandu Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors
6. Mustang Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors
7. Myagdi Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors
8. Panchthar Climate Change Threat Profile for Development Sectors

District climate change threat profile summaries

1. Achham Climate Change Threat Profile Simmary
2. Banke Clinate Change Threat Profile Summary
3. Chitwan Climate Change Threat Profile Summary
4. Dolkha Climate Change Threat Profile Summary
5. Kathmandu Climate Change Threat Profile Summary
6. Mustang Climate Change Threat Profile Summary
7. Myagdi Climate Change Threat Profile Summary
8. Panchthar Climate Change Threat Profile Summary